An expert article by Valery Afanasyev, Director of the Government Relations and Regulatory Risk Assessment Practice at Baikal Communications Group, has been published on the website of the industry media outlet Agroinvestor. The article examines changes in the model of state support for the agro-industrial complex (AIC) and their implications for business. Prepared specifically for the publication, the material analyzes the sector’s transition from a period of record-level budgetary injections to a more restrained and targeted financing policy.

The article notes that following peak levels of government support in 2023–2024, the agro-industrial complex is, for the first time in a long period, entering a phase of reduced budgetary allocations. This shift is driven by budgetary constraints, a high key interest rate, and declining export revenues. Under these conditions, public policy is moving away from expanding subsidy volumes toward improving the efficiency, targeting, and controllability of support measures.

Particular attention is paid to funding trends in key government programs, including the State Program for the Development of Agriculture, the Integrated Rural Development Program, and the Land Reclamation Development Program. The author demonstrates that even where significant absolute funding levels are maintained, the “high-base effect” creates a market perception of declining support, while competition among companies increasingly unfolds not only for markets but also for access to public resources.

The article provides a detailed analysis of changes in preferential lending mechanisms, the rising cost of borrowed funds, and the tightening of banks’ approaches to the agricultural sector. These factors increase the financial burden on producers and elevate the importance of non-financial resilience instruments, ranging from regulatory adaptation to strategic planning of engagement with public authorities.

A separate section of the article addresses the reasons behind adjustments to budgetary policy, including changes in the revenue structure, reduced proceeds from export duties, and a shift toward stricter control over public spending. The author emphasizes that the state is increasingly prioritizing support for key areas such as breeding and genetics, digitalization, technological development, and workforce capacity building within the sector.

In conclusion, Valery Afanasyev notes that amid declining direct financial support and a more complex regulatory environment, the role of the government relations (GR) function for agribusiness is becoming significantly more important. Companies’ ability to establish a structured dialogue with regulators, participate in rulemaking, and substantiate the relevance of their projects to national priorities is emerging as a critical factor for sustainability and long-term development of the agro-industrial complex.

For further details, see the Agroinvestor article.

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